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Soccer Predictions - How Can You beat with soccer over-under predictions?

Updated: Oct 9, 2018

While the tipsters constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try to avoid paying out, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There is no one million-dollar answer. Nevertheless, there are two ways that will allow you to beat the tipsters. One way is to analyze non-measurable match information. Another way is to improve on statistical prediction models used by tipsters.

The first process requires you to analyze data such as match type or precedence, which is not used in numerical models. Among the most important factors that might control the outcome of a soccer match are:

For tonight football match prediction which can be a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media select favorites and the better-informed punter can profit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.

• Match priority. Every team has to describe its precedence for the obliging matches since player’s resources are limited. European national cups are fine examples for the top teams of low priority games.

• Match time is important since value football betting tips are usually inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.

• Players' hurt, sickness, and transfers especially in the cases of key players. Tipsters' odds are usually calculated ahead of this information is available.

• European Leagues - predictable and unpredictable. The French, Italian, Norwegian and Spanish leagues are considered predictable. The unpredictable is the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and the end of the season.

• The former issue is thrown conditions, team managers, match crowd, climate conditions and, of course, untainted possibility.

Just before analyze all that information for each match would be a difficult and long mission. The substitute is to use superior statistical forecast methods, which comprise an advance on tipsters' forecast models.

Why can their models be further improved? First, when analyzing tipsters' predictions carefully, it is easy to notice that their models are based on average statistics. Low odds regularly communicate to teams with high table positions plus vice versa. It is clear that the accurateness of their models suffers when team skills modify. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you can boost your proceeds by placing a bet on extremely priced second best.

Second, the tipsters' models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and don't take into account that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. Once you learn how to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can easily forecast the total number of goals and beat with soccer over-under predictions.

Tonight football match prediction is based on time-varying skills of soccer teams. You might view charts that present the attacking and defensive potency of more than a thousand teams from around the world at soccer tipster site.



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